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 [转帖]WSJ：裁员风潮愈演愈烈 经济下滑可能加剧 |
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[转帖]WSJ：裁员风潮愈演愈烈 经济下滑可能加剧 -- 游客 - (10948 Byte) 2008-10-24 周五, 15:45 (1356 reads) |
tahiti
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
More than 750,000 jobs have disappeared from the U.S. economy this year and workers face the prospect of plenty more layoffs to come as a continuing credit crunch and weak consumer demand hamper firms trying to maintain payrolls.
The good news is that workers can look for red flags for approaching layoffs, and knowing that a job loss is coming is a first step to getting back on your feet, experts say. Here are five omens that may signal your position is on the line.
Others are losing their jobs
Even if colleagues have been let go, workers are often surprised when it's their turn to get called into the boss's office. You are not immune. If others are losing their jobs you may too, even if your boss says different.
'It's dangerous to assume that management has a crystal ball about these things. Situations can change very rapidly,' said Monica Parker, founder of LeavingTheLaw.com, which helps unhappy l<x>ayers find new work. 'I don't think that people are going out of their way to deceive others. It could be that they are lacking information, or circumstances change.'
The bottom line is that you need to be aware of the possibility of a layoff.
'It doesn't help to close your eyes to the situation and hope that it won't be you,' Parker said. 'There's this sense that it's going to be someone else. But, in fact, it's you. It's a very tough thing.'
Depending on a company's policies, workers at greatest risk of layoffs may be those who were most recently hired. Other targets are workers who aren't getting the job done.
'If management sees that you are not following through with your responsibilities, that's a big piece of it -- if they don't see potential in you to advance,' Parker said.
Hiring freeze
Vanishing job postings on Internet sites can also send a layoff signal.
'You have the ability to hire, and all of a sudden your manager says 'wait,'' said Melissa Fireman, co-founder of Washington Career Services, a career management firm.
Workers should look at whether colleagues are taking on more or less work, and whether some are being asked or told to leave.
Manny Avramidis, senior vice president for global human resources at American Management Association, said the newly budgeted positions that never get filled are the first to go, then replacement spots that used to be posted and have disappeared, and then come the retirements that seem to be welcomed by management and are not filled.
Even as businesses trim around the edges, some departments are at lesser layoff risk, and there won't necessarily be cuts across the board, he added. Workers that contribute directly to revenue may be safer.
'For example, a telemarketer selling product usually stays around,' Avramidis said. 'If you start to see budget dollars going away, and the people who supported those dollars are going away, there is [cause for] concern.'
Workers should remember that layoffs don't translate to losses for a firm's entire work force, he said.
'As long as a business doesn't go out of business, they'll have to retain staff. The leaders know that when they get through this recession, they'll need employees,' Avramidis said.
Training budgets cut, projects slow down
Even large companies may cut training budgets, a red flag that financial concerns could lead to layoffs.
'They are not going to train because they are not sure if everyone is going to be there,' Fireman said.
While there are certain critical initiatives or projects that need to go forward if a company wants to keep up production, workers should watch out when project spending slows, Avramidis said.
'From an employee's standpoint, anytime they see an organization cutting back on its spending and cutting back on activities, as well as staff or initiatives around them, they need to think through the details and figure out at what point does it reach my desk,' Avramidis said.
Office gossip
Conventional wisdom calls for taking office gossip with a grain of salt. But sometimes it makes sense to listen to what your co-workers are saying and doing, Parker said.
'It's helpful to listen to gossip. It makes sense to notice what the talk is and to notice how people's responsibilities or jobs are being redefined,' Parker said.
Fireman said workers should be careful about gossip, but that it does make sense to keep a 'temperature reading' on your boss.
'If you do have a good relationship, ask how things are looking for the next quarter,' Fireman said. 'When I have heard from people who have a good relationship with their boss, the boss says to them it's a good time to start looking.'
Company is missing targets
While some management may be less than forthcoming about missed targets for financial performance, workers can investigate a company's health by checking out the budget.
'That will tell them a story they want to know,' Avramidis said. '[Companies] have a budget they are trying to achieve. An organization usually only has so much tolerance in how much they want to tap into reserves, like an individual tapping into a savings account.'
A major sign of approaching layoffs is a business that isn't performing well. Especially at publicly traded companies, performance is critical, because firms that don't perform to an expected level, even during recessionary times, will be forced to cut back.
Ruth Mantell
洞察裁员先机 把握自身命运
2008年10月23日
今年以来，美国已经蒸发了75万多份工作；由于信贷危机阴云不散，疲弱的消费需求令企业难以维持雇员数量，员工们不得不面对更大规模的裁员前景。
但专家说，即便如此，员工还是能够察觉即将裁员的信号，而把握裁员信息是让自己重新开始的第一步。以下是你的职位或许面临危险的五个征兆。
1。其他人正在失去工作
即使有同事被解雇，员工在轮到自己被叫到老板办公室的时候通常还是会感到意外。你也不会幸免。如果其他人会丢掉工作，那么你或许也一样，即使你的老板说你跟他们不同。
LeavingTheLaw.com 创始人帕克(Monica Parker)说，如果以为管理层手里有个能预知这些事情的水晶球，那就大错特错了。情况会非常迅速地发生变化。他说：我不认为人们会特意欺骗别人。可能是他们缺乏信息，或是情况有了变化。LeavingTheLaw.com帮助被解雇人员寻找新工作。
底线是，你需要意识到有被解雇的可能性。
帕克说，回避现实、幻想倒霉的不会是你，这样的做法毫无用处。有人会觉得，这是别人的事。但事实上，倒霉的就是你。这是非常残酷的现实。
不同的公司政策会有不同，不过一般而论，最可能被解雇的或许是那些最近聘用的人，还有那些完不成工作的人。
帕克说，如果管理层认为你没能完成你的职责，而且他们又没看到你有改进的潜力，那你就麻烦大了。
2。冻结招人
网站上招聘职位减少也能传递将发生裁员的信号。
就业管理公司Washington Career Services的联合创办人法尔曼(Melissa Fireman)说，你本来有能力增加人手，但突然间你的经理让你“等等”。
员工应该观察一下同事们的工作量增加了还是减少了，是否有人被要求或接到通知离职。
美国管理学会(American Management Association)全球人力资源高级副总裁阿弗拉米迪斯(Manny Avramidis)说，最近刚拿到预算但尚未招人的职位会最先被裁掉，其后是那些过去被公布但现在已消失不见的后备岗位，再然后是受管理层欢迎但尚未填满的退休计划。
他说，即使企业在裁员时会四处出手，但有些部门被“裁”到的风险还是相对较小；而且，公司也未必会全面铺开裁员。那些能直接带来收入的员工或许比较安全。
阿弗拉米迪斯举例说，销售产品的电话营销人员通常会留下。如果你开始看到预算在减少，支持这些预算的员工相继离开，那就有理由感到担心。
员工们应该记住，裁员并不意味着一家公司的全体员工都得离开。
阿弗拉米迪斯说，只要一家企业不关闭，他们总要留下员工。头头们知道一旦度过这段衰退期，他们还需要员工。
3。培训预算削减 项目进展放慢
即使大公司也有可能削减培训预算，这是一个警告信号，说明财务困难可能会导致裁员。
法尔曼说，他们不再搞培训，因为他们不确定大家是否还会呆在这里。
阿弗拉米迪斯说，虽然如果一家公司想继续生产，就需要推进某些关键计划或项目，但员工应该留心是否有项目支出开始减少。
阿弗拉米迪斯说，从一名员工的角度来说，一旦他们看到一个机构开始缩减开支或减少活动，或减少它们相关的人员或计划，他们就该对那些细节加以思考，并估计一下什么时候（这种情况）会降临到自己的头上。
4。办公室传言
一般来说，对办公室里的传言要有所保留，不能太听信。但帕克说，有时听听同事们都在说什么、做什么也不无帮助。
帕克说，听听那些闲话也会有帮助，注意一下大家在谈些什么、各人的职责或者任务有没有调整，这也能提供一些线索。
法尔曼说，员工应该对闲话持谨慎态度，但有必要关注老板的“温度指数”。
法尔曼说，如果你跟老板的确关系不错的话，可以问问下个季度的情况会怎样。当我听说某人跟老板关系不错，老板又和某人说了什么，那就该开始留意了。
5。公司没能实现业绩目标
虽然有些公司管理层对没能实现财务目标会不那么坦率，但员工可以通过查对预算来判断公司的状况。
阿弗拉米迪斯说，这样可以让他们了解他们希望知道的东西。公司都有一个希望实现的预算。一家机构通常在是否动用资金储备方面会有相当大的忍耐力，就像我们个人都不愿意轻易动用存款帐户里的钱。
一家公司会动手裁员的一个重要信号是业绩不好。对那些上市公司而言，业绩表现尤为重要，因为达不到业绩预期的公司将不得不裁减人员，即便是处在衰退时期。
Ruth Mantell
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]WSJ：裁员风潮愈演愈烈 经济下滑可能加剧 -- tahiti - (10948 Byte) 2008-10-24 周五, 15:45 (1356 reads) - [转帖]Five Signs You May Be on the Layoff List -- tahiti - (7379 Byte) 2008-10-24 周五, 15:56 (336 reads)
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