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 VIX has never disappointed traders ! 经历过87股崩的八哥谈股市 |
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八哥
头衔: 海归少校
声望: 学员
加入时间: 2008/09/29
文章: 55
海归分: 21363
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作者：八哥 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
给归坛子里87年时还穿着开裆裤的小第第小美眉们摆个老。八哥开始炒股时，你们不遮私处，小第第小妹妹天天亮给公众，哈哈..
87年时的情景记忆犹新。10/19/87，黑色星期一，VIX超过150, a real market bottom...
Looked at the history, A Peak VIX has never been wrong for pin-pointing a short term market bottom. Currently, the VIX is at 58+ , 20years + record high, exceeded 10/16/87(friday) but still lower than 10/19/87(the black Monday). A short term peak for VIX always corresponds to a short term market bottom.
Would this time be different??
Now, Fly to quality is in a rush, every body is liquidating, hedge funds are crashing, cash is the king, enough is enough, everyone is negative, Z end of world is nearing.... what else can you get for a typical short term market bottom??
In addition, SEC just changed the Mark to Market accounting rule which is going to have huge impact to relax the capital requirement for us financial institutions... and more..
Don't under estimate the effect for $700B bail out. Although the total CDS value could be around 55 trillions world wide, but the total CDS value related to the US Mortgages shall not exceed the total value of US mortgage which is around 11-12 trillions dollars. the total value for CDS in trouble related to the US Mortgages shall not exceed the total value for the troubled US mortgage which in a very stressed estimation, shall not exceed 1.5 trillions. Currently the total US troubled mortgages is under 700B, if the bail out fund is 95% used for helping the troubled mortgage and the Treasury can get deals at 50 cents for a dollar or less, the 700B alone without PE would have covered 99% troubled US mortgages in the most stressed estimation. Therefore, this 700B shall have big impacts on helping the troubled banking system to recover...
On the negative part, many big banks/IB hold CDS related to EU troubled assets.. For this part, US Bail out will not help, we need coordinated actions from EU..
anyway, I am more and more positive toward the market now. For traders, talking an absolute bottom is meaningless. Traders are only interested in the SHORT TERM Bottom to catch up a tradable rally..
Paulson is the best in the world. He really understands .
作者：八哥 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由八哥于2008-10-07 周二, 08:35修改，总共修改了21次
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 VIX has never disappointed traders ! 经历过87股崩的八哥谈股市 -- 八哥 - (2181 Byte) 2008-10-07 周二, 03:13 (1690 reads)
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