| 作者 |
 中国的房地产泡沫 |
 |
ipotrader
头衔: 海归中尉
声望: 学员
加入时间: 2009/05/09
文章: 101
海归分: 5252
|
|
|
作者：ipotrader 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
这两天无意中读到一个日本学者对90年代初日本房地产泡沫破裂过程的描述, 转贴出来给大家看看, 原始链接: https://www.grips.ac.jp/teacher/oono/hp/lecture_J/lec13.htm
During the late 1980s which was the rising phase of the bubble, many queer phenomena were observed.
--Those who had land became very rich and those who didn't had little chance of buying their home. This increased the sense of inequality and social injustice.
--Enriched people purchased expensive clothes, cars, food, and so on. They also traveled all over the world to spend money (remember narikin during WW1?)
--Since vacant land was a more valuable asset (easier to sell) than built land, the yakuza (Japanese mafia) was mobilized to demolish the building illegally and forced the owner to sell the land. Sometimes the yakuza drove a truck into a house to destroy it.
--Too many office buildings were built in urban areas. They stood empty for many years to follow.
--Too many amusement parks and resort hotels were developed. The only hugely successful amusement park in Japan was (is) Tokyo Disneyland. All others got into financial troubles and many of them are now closed. Some of them are still operating under financial distress: for example, Huis ten Bosch (Dutch theme park in Nagasaki), Phoenix Seagaia Resort (seaside complex in Miyazaki), and Alpha Resort Tomamu (winter sports resort in Hokkaido).
--A large number of male construction workers from the Middle East (especially Iran) came to work in Japan (some legal but others illegal). Every weekend they gathered in Ueno Park to enjoy themselves and exchange information.
But after the bubble burst, these phenomena all disappeared.
以上所讲的这些当年在日本出现的现象好象目前在中国也很眼熟.
中国的经济发展规律主要靠两驾马车, 一是人力密集型的出口产品业, 二是投资密集型的铁公基和房地产业. 现在美国和欧洲的经济不容乐观, 要保八的话铁公基和房地产业就更为重要. 地产商和投资客之所以肆无忌惮, 就是看中了中国经济发展规律的这块软肋, 社会安定比房价重要吧? 要保八来维持社会安定, 就要保持房地产业不倒.
问题在于, 房地产的最终买单者是谁? 当房子变成一种投资的工具而不是用来使用时, 一边是大量的空置房, 一边是工薪阶层买不起房子, 房地产泡沫的破裂近在眼前, 加息引起断供, 在下来就多米偌骨排效应.
出于恐慌心态去买房的人搭上了自己一辈子的储蓄, 而”被拆迁”而暴富的农民丧失了土地而换来了一套或者好几套的安置房, 在房地产价格高涨的今天, 已经拥有房子的人都觉得自己很富裕, 而没有拥有房子的人都在拼命骂房价.
其实这房价真能靠ZF的一些虚情假意的调控降下来吗? 想想A股火热的07年, ZF连续出台了那么多措施想给股市降温, A股还是拼命往上冲. 到了08年, ZF连续出台托市政策, A古还是拼命往下掉.
当房地产市场崩溃的时候, 那些搭上一辈子赚的钱或者被拆迁的原来的老房子而换来的新房子的人, 他们除了房子还有什么呢? 在货币战争一书中,宋同学多次提到发达国家对发展中国家的煎羊毛, 中国的房地产市场崩溃的时候, 是不是有人被煎羊毛了呢? 而获益者又是谁呢?
作者：ipotrader 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
|
|
|
| 返回顶端 |
|
 |
|
-
 中国的房地产泡沫 -- ipotrader - (2271 Byte) 2010-8-19 周四, 15:37 (3613 reads)
|
|
|
|
您不能在本论坛发表新主题, 不能回复主题, 不能编辑自己的文章, 不能删除自己的文章, 不能发表投票, 您 不可以 发表活动帖子在本论坛, 不能添加附件不能下载文件, |
|
|
