| 作者 |
 [转帖]郎咸平:中国新能源产业不能再搞“大跃进” |
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| 所跟贴 |
[转帖]郎咸平:中国新能源产业不能再搞“大跃进” -- htt1998 - (2851 Byte) 2012-10-18 周四, 02:35 (2479 reads) |
haiou
头衔: 海归中尉
声望: 学员
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加入时间: 2005/08/21
文章: 35
来自: Chicago, New Jersey, Shanghai
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作者：haiou 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
Historically, when a new energy saving solution can create real challenges to oil companies, big oil interests will buy it out or crash it using their resources. Western countries with big oil companies never really push for new energies. Think about it: only Germany and Spain pushed for solar and these two countries have no big global level oil companies. My thesis advisor, two time ASME fellow and former New Energy Head of DOE, told me that some of his inventions were bought out by anonymous buyers. One of them is to make cars reaching 40 miles per gallon in the 60’s. Before the productions starts, the big auto abruptly yanked the project under pressures from unnamed sources.
There is no new energy, except maybe nuclear, can compete with traditional oil/coal energy sources. Solar may reach cost parity when oil price is about $90-100 a barrel. But the all-in oil cost is about $2-3 a barrel in Middle East and about $15 in US lower 48 states. When I was working for Sinopec in the ‘90s, the real cost is about $1. I think the cost increase mainly from spreading the military cost and inflation. So, in the foreseeable future and safely say in our life time, no large scale production level alternative energy (except nuclear and hydro) will replace oil/coal. Any one invest in alternative energy with a long term view will get really hurt. Short term speculation is OK if you have a “crystal ball”.
作者：haiou 在 海归茶馆 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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