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 [转帖]Top Traders Still Expect The Cash |
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
2008年11月19日
Behind headlines of record losses, a small group of Wall Street traders on commodities, currencies and interest-rate trading desks have made huge profits for the banks that employ them. That is setting up a scramble as traders vie for dwindling pools of bonus money once heaped on such top performers.
So far, they look to be on the losing side of the trade. Top officers at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., UBS AG, Deutsche Bank AG, and Barclays PLC all are forgoing bonus payments for 2008.
Even 'best-in-class' front-line employees now face a much darker pay outlook, with bonuses expected to fall by 10% to 20%, according to search firm Options Group. It projects that bonuses overall will drop 25% to 50%. UBS, meanwhile, is crafting packages that withhold short-term pay if long-term bets go sour.
The top traders' final bonuses will be an acid test for Wall Street's once-proud pay-for-performance culture.
Shaken by the global financial crisis and increasing government oversight, banks are groping with a new way of doing business: Pay out huge sums and risk public ire and perhaps more government intervention. Pay too little, and tempt defections or insurrection from the few people who are driving this year's profits.
Around Wall Street, 'I know a couple guys who've been told, 'We'll take care of you.' But they call me every day because they worry' that they will be shortchanged, said Gustavo Dolfino, president of financial-services executive-search firm WhiteRock Group. 'The only guys protected are the guys with a contract.'
Indeed, not all of Wall Street is in the red. The rough-and-tumble commodity markets, for example, delivered a much-needed assist to Morgan Stanley and Goldman.
The two banks are struggling with declining stock prices and questions about their long-term business models. But the firms' little-publicized commodity-trading desks could add perhaps as much as $1.5 billion to each firm's 2008 bottom line, say people familiar with their results. That could potentially contribute as much as a third of Goldman's and Morgan's projected net income. (Wall Street firms don't break out results from their commodities business.)
The year's three hottest trading areas -- commodities, currencies and interest rates -- generally are housed within banks' fixed-income trading divisions, which also typically include the hard-hit mortgage-trading and credit-derivative products. That is dragging down potential compensation for even the best performers.
That doesn't sit well with consistently profitable divisions. While Morgan Stanley's chief financial officer cited the commodities-trading group on an analyst call this year as one of the bank's 'two top businesses,' some traders in the unit in the past have argued that the commodities group is undercompensated relative to its contribution.
Michael Karp, CEO of Options Group, says he is telling many high-performing traders that if their bonuses 'are flat from last year, they should be pretty excited, even if they've had a much better year.' The best traders at top-tier commodities and currency desks made $10 million to $20 million or more last year, and the next level down, traders who brought in $100 million in revenues, might have made $4 million to $5 million, he says.
Generally, traders look for bonuses of up to 10% of profits they made for a firm, with adjustments for the performance of the unit and the overall firm. This year, an oil trader who brought in several hundred million dollars or more in revenues to his firm might still get $20 million, but much more of it will be in stock.
Mr. Dolfino says star foreign-exchange traders who expected to make $25 million this year after earning the firm $250 million may get less if it isn't clear the feat can be repeated without the use of borrowed money.
Access to the firm's capital has been a key element to the returns of Morgan and Goldman, who have led a virtual duopoly in this commodities-trading business for more than two decades. In its fiscal year ending this month, Morgan Stanley's commodities business is set to record $2.5 billion to $3 billion in net revenue, before compensation costs and taxes, several people familiar with its results say.
Goldman, the other dominant Wall Street commodity dealer, could also make as much as $3 billion in net revenue, say people familiar with its results.
The third-largest commodity dealer, Barclays Capital, a unit of Barclays, also is moving toward a record year of $2.2 billion or more in net revenue, say others familiar with its performance. Its year ends in December.
Commodities operations help airlines manage fuel costs, sell investments pegged to raw-materials prices and speculate with firm money on gyrating oil, me<x>tals and grains.
Morgan Stanley's agricultural-trading group, headed by Jean Bourlot in London, for example, successfully navigated the run-up in agriculture prices early this year and made fat margins on structured investments bought by pension funds and others.
And as owner of a fuel distribution and terminal network, Morgan and other so-called physical energy traders also had gasoline inventories to sell when Hurricane Ike disrupted supply in the South.
Many firms' foreign-exchange and interest-rates groups -- which act as brokers for clients managing currency and interest-rate risks and make bets in those markets themselves -- also are expected to post stellar results, say people familiar with the matter. Headhunters cited traders at Deutsche Bank, Goldman and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. who will expect rewards this year to stick around.
J.P. Morgan, for example, said its 19% increase in fixed-income markets revenue for the third quarter was 'driven by record results in rates and currencies,' along with strong performance in credit trading, emerging markets and commodities.
Yet the world's banks are keen not to appear to be funneling billions of dollars in government aid into bonuses, especially with government officials sending subpoenas over bonus plans. Earlier this week, New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo urged Citigroup Inc.'s top brass to decline bonuses. Goldman's general counsel Gregory Palm told a Senate committee last week that payouts to his firm's employees will be 'dramatically affected' by the financial turmoil.
UBS, the European bank hardest hit by the financial crisis, says that next year, about 2,000 of its 8,000 employees will be labeled as 'risk takers.' They will receive variable cash and share bonuses, with the cash component paid out over several years and a provision to deduct from it during that period if company or individual performance is poor.
But docking pay for big producers can be risky. Deutsche Bank finance chief Stefan Krause recently told analysts that bonuses would be down but added: 'We need good people that develop profitable business and generate revenues. So we will not do anything that really harms our platform.'
Ann Davis
一流交易员仍期待丰厚奖金
虽然新闻里满眼都是创纪录的亏损数字，但华尔街少数从事大宗商品、外汇和利率交易的人士仍给他们的老板创造了不菲的利润。如果是在以往年份，这些一流交易员会收到一大堆奖金，但现在，由于奖金总量大大缩水，交易员们势必将陷入争抢。
但从目前来看，他们的希望可能要落空。高盛(Goldman Sachs Group)、瑞士银行(UBS AG)、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)和巴克莱(Barclays PLC)的高管全都放弃了2008年的奖金。
即使是“最优秀的”一流员工现在也面临着更加黯淡的薪酬前景，据人力资源公司Options Group估计，他们的奖金将下降10%-20%。该公司预计，奖金总额将下降25%-50%。与此同时，瑞银正在制定计划，一旦长期前景恶化，将暂停发放短期奖金。
一流交易员最终的奖金情况将对华尔街一向引以为荣的绩效薪酬挂钩文化发起严峻挑战。
受全球金融危机和政府加强监管影响，各家银行纷纷探索新的经营模式：如果薪酬太高，则有可能招致公众批评乃至更多的政府干预。而薪酬太少，则有可能导致一些今年为公司创造可观利润的人开小差甚至跳槽。
金融服务业人力资源公司WhiteRock Group总裁多菲诺(Gustavo Dolfino)说：就我所知，华尔街上有几个人已被告知会得到“照顾”。但他们每天都给我打电话，因为担心他们会受到不公正待遇。他说，能得到保护的只有那些有合同的人。
的确，华尔街并非全线崩溃。比如，大宗商品市场的混战就让摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和高盛得到了急需的帮助。
这两家公司一直在竭力应对股价下跌和外界对它们长期业务模式的质疑。但据知情人士说，两家公司不太为外人知的商品交易业务或许分别能给各自公司增加15亿美元的利润，占各自预期净利润的三分之一（华尔街公司不单独列出大宗商品业务的业绩）。
今年金融市场三大交易热点──大宗商品、外汇和利率──通常都归属银行的固定收益部门。该部门一般还包括今年遭受重挫的按揭交易和信贷衍生产品。这种安排使得那些即使是最出色的交易员在薪酬方面受到拖累。
这对那些持续盈利的业务部门就显得不那么公正了。摩根士丹利首席财务长今年在一次分析师电话会上称其大宗商品交易部门是该行“最好的两块业务”之一。尽管如此，该部门的一些交易员过去一直认为，该部门的薪酬水平相对于其贡献而言是偏低的。
Options Group首席执行长卡普(Michael Karp)说，他对许多业绩优秀交易员说，如果奖金能与去年持平，他们就该大喜特喜了，即使他们自己的业绩比去年还好。他说，一级大宗商品和外汇交易柜台最佳交易员去年的报酬在1,000-2,000万美元以上，低一个级别的交易员（业务收入在1亿美元）可以挣到400-500万美元。
通常情况下，交易员最高有望获得相当于其为公司所创造利润10%的奖金，具体数额会根据其所在部门的业绩和公司总体业绩情况有所增减。今年，那些为公司实现了数亿美元甚至更多利润的石油交易员仍有可能获得2,000万美元奖金，但奖金中以股票形式发放的部分将大幅增加。
多菲诺说，那些为公司创造了2.5亿美元利润的明星级外汇交易员如果不能证明其交易技巧在无需借助杠杆手法的情况下也能奏效，他们今年获得的奖金可能就要少于原以为的2,500万美元。
摩根士丹利和高盛能够获得丰厚回报的一个重要原因是它们可以动用自己雄厚的资金，这两家公司二十多年来实际上垄断了大宗商品交易业务。据几位知情人士说，在截至本月的财政年度内，摩根士丹利大宗商品交易业务的主营业务收入（不包括薪酬成本和税项支出）预计将为25亿至30亿美元。
另据知情人士说，作为华尔街另一家居主导地位的大宗商品交易商，高盛本财年大宗商品交易业务的主营业务收入也有可能高达30亿美元。
还有知情人士透露，作为排名第三的大宗商品交易商，巴克莱旗下子公司Barclays Capital今年的主营业务收入也有望达到创纪录的22亿美元，甚至更多。
这些大宗商品交易机构帮助航空公司控制燃油成本，还出售与原材料价格挂钩的投资产品，并用公司的自有资金在价格剧烈波动的石油、金属和谷物市场上进行投机。
以鲍罗特(Jean Bourlot)在伦敦坐镇指挥的摩根士丹利农产品交易团队为例，它便抓住了农产品价格今年初大幅上扬的机会，通过向退休基金等投资者出售相关结构性投资产品而赚取了丰厚利润。
由于自身拥有燃料码头和分销网络，摩根士丹利等所谓的实物能源交易商在艾克飓风导致美国南部汽油供应中断时还有自己的库存汽油可供出售。
据知情人士说，许多公司的外汇和利率交易团队今年也有望取得良好业绩。这些团队既以经纪商的身份为客户控制外汇和利率风险，同时自己也在相关市场上下注。据猎头公司说，德意志银行、高盛和摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)的交易员都将视今年能获得多少奖金来决定未来的去留。
例如摩根大通就表示，其第三季度从固定收益市场获得的收入之所以能增加19%，应归功于外汇和利率交易团队创纪录的业绩以及公司在信贷交易、新兴市场和大宗商品领域的强劲表现。
但世界各大银行都急于不让外界觉得它们正把政府注入的数十亿美元救助资金用于发奖金，特别是在政府官员正频频召它们前去说明其奖金发放计划的眼下。本周早些时候，纽约司法部长葛谟(Andrew Cuomo)敦促花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)的管理层放弃奖金。高盛的首席法律顾问帕姆(Gregory Palm)上周对国会参议院的一个委员会说，该公司员工的收入将受到当前金融动荡的“剧烈影响”。
瑞银是受这场金融危机打击最重的欧洲银行，它称明年公司的8,000名员工中将有约2,000人被列为“风险承受人”。他们的奖金将由数量可变的现金和股票构成，其中现金部分将分几年支付，并且奖金中还要拿出一部分作准备金，如果在奖金支付期内公司或其个人的业绩不佳，则会从这笔准备金中扣掉一部分。
但减扣那些赢利明星的奖金可能是种危险的做法。德意志银行的首席财务长克劳斯(Stefan Krause)最近对分析师们说该公司员工的奖金有可能减少，但他同时表示，德意志银行需要优秀人才来开发有利可图的业务和创造收入，所以该公司不会做任何会对公司人才平台构成实际损害的事。
本文涉及股票或公司
德意志银行
英文名称：Deutsche Bank AG (ADS)
总部地点：德国
纽约证交所代码：DB
德国证券电子交易平台代码：DBKGn
瑞士银行
英文名称：UBS AG (ADS)
总部地点：瑞士(Switzerland)
纽约证交所代码：UBS
VTX股票代码：UBSN
巴克莱集团
英文名称：Barclays PLC (ADS)
总部地点：英国
纽约证交所代码：BCS
伦敦股票代码：BARC
摩根大通公司
英文名称：JPMorgan Chase & Co.
总部地点：美国
纽约证交所代码：JPM
高盛集团
英文名称：Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
总部地点：美国
纽约证交所代码：GS
摩根士丹利
英文名称：Morgan Stanley
总部地点：美国
纽约证交所代码：MS
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 [转帖]Top Traders Still Expect The Cash -- tahiti - (10158 Byte) 2008-11-19 周三, 23:23 (1217 reads)
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