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 [转帖]美国系列：失血的15个“加利福尼亚” 没有备好棉衣的寒冬 |
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[转帖]美国系列：失血的15个“加利福尼亚” 没有备好棉衣的寒冬 -- 游客 - (3695 Byte) 2008-10-08 周三, 23:43 (1656 reads) |
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作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
2008年10月10日
始于加州的最新流行趋势正在向美国各地蔓延，这就是衰退。
美国经济显然已处于衰退之中，房价的下跌和华尔街的动荡遏制了消费者的支出，带来失业率的上升。但加州最先经受了凡此种种。如今，我们看看加州就知道美国总体经济低迷会是什么情景。
加州眼下的问题始于房地产泡沫，像Moreno Valley这样的地方受到的冲击尤其大
同美国的许多州一样，加州也拥有出口业、制造业、专业服务业和大型零售企业，甚至还要更多一些。加州的经济产值为1.8万亿美元，是印度的两倍，约占美国国内生产总值的15%，因此足以在全国产生扩散效应。好莱坞就位于加州，美国职业棒球大联盟中的30支球队有5只在加州，加州的农业规模在美国位居第一。
加州也处于前几年美国房地产泡沫的前沿，这也是当前危机的始作俑者。加州的房价比美国的大多数州上涨速度更快，涨幅更大，但回落得也更早，2005年就初见端倪。一些抵押贷款者开始违约，还有一些人深陷大量债务难以自拔。这些问题扩散到了大量涉足本地房地产的加州金融领域。随着加州人削减支出，裁员从房地产业扩散到了零售店和汽车销售企业。现在加州的失业率已经达到了7.7%，是美国失业率最高的州。
同佛罗里达和内华达等美国南部诸州一样，加州也是目前席卷全球银行、企业和股市的这场风暴的主要来源。金融危机导致了信贷市场的冻结，降低了企业进行日常借款，满足业务需要的能力。
但即使在美国经济最近遭受这轮打击之前，加州人已经感受到了消费主导型衰退的下行拖累──房屋价值缩水导致人们控制支出，导致失业率上升，从而引发了进一步的缩减支出和失业。
消费支出占美国经济活动的70%左右，因此随着人们削减支出，裁员和其它经济问题就会接踵而至。2007年第三季度，加州的应税销售额比上年同期下降了 1.82%，为2002年以来的首度下跌。此后应税销售额逐季下降。现在，除了建筑工人和抵押贷款经纪人之外，零售职员、会计和IT咨询师等也都开始失业了。
同样的一幕正开始在全国上演。在6月份触顶后，零售额最近开始下降。失业率的上升可能导致未来的零售额进一步下降。今年9月，美国的就业人员减少了159,000人。失业率达到了6.1%，高于上年同期的4.7%。
对衰退并没有统一的定义，对于一个州的经济如何算作衰退也没有一致意见。但根据经济学家采用的大多数标准──失业率上升，消费额下降──加州都满足这个条件。加州经济学家John Husing说，无疑这个地区正处于衰退之中，我们是最先受到冲击的。
辉煌不再
加州抵押贷款的疯狂度曾经是最高的，该州的金融机构也曾站在发放被打包成复杂证券的非传统抵押贷款的前沿。当此类证券的价值暴跌后，这些机构也最先成为这场灾难的受害者。
加州受到的打击预示了华尔街后来的结局。截至今年8月份，加州的金融类相关职位在过去两年里减少了6.8%，而在全国范围内是下降1.5%。
加州消费者的负债是美国各州中最高的。根据Equifax和穆迪(Moody's)旗下Economy.com的数据，对拿回家中的每一美元，加州人会用其中的0.19美元用于偿还抵押贷款、汽车、信用卡和其他负债，而全国的平均水平约为0.15美元。由于消费者偿还债务，他们剩余下来用于支出的数额就减少了，这从长期来看对美国的经济有益，但目前会打击美国的零售商。
随着各家银行收紧信贷资金流，即使是那些消费者需求在上升的公司在扩大业务上也遇到了困难。过去十年来，位于Vista的CoopSport主要在专卖店里销售海滩、游泳池和宠物玩具。但上个月，该公司第一次接到了 Target Corp.、沃尔玛(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)和玩具反斗城(Toy "R" Us Inc.)等大型零售商发来的订单。
CoopSport老板库柏(Scott Cooper)说，过去，公司能从其中国工厂那里获得年利率在10%左右的贷款。但随着信贷危机在全球的蔓延，中方工厂不愿向他提供通常的融资了。他从一直往来的几家美国银行也拿不到需要的贷款，因此，只能从非传统型贷款机构那里凑些贷款，年利率高达18%。
库柏说，为筹措资金扩大业务，他卖掉了公司7.5%的股份。在准备扩大业务时，他不仅没有增加员工，反而辞退了8名库房工人和两名办公室职员。为进一步节约成本，该公司还换了更便宜的制盒厂和运输公司。他说，这些都是为求生存而采取的无奈之举。
随着海外增长放缓和金融领域危机加剧，加州规模庞大的科技业也受到沉重打击。比如，位于圣克拉拉的半导体制造商应用材料公司(Applied Materials Inc.)有80%的收入来自海外。金融公司也是科技业最大的客户之一。
当然，即使陷入衰退，加州仍保持着相当的实力。该州的多所大学不断输出新技术和创业人才，使其在电信、生物技术和高效能源技术领域的高薪职位出奇多。跟美国其他地区一样，其医疗保健行业也在源源不断地创造新工作机会。
随着美元汇率持续保持低位，出口也成为加州经济的一个亮点。长滩港和洛杉矶港是美国最大的两个港口，越来越多的商品从这里上船出口到海外。今年截至8月，两家港口合计输出的集装箱整箱数较去年同期增加了22%。不过，随着全球经济放缓，预计当地和全国的出口都将放缓。
一些经济学家还认为，加州住房市场将在全国市场之前率先触底，并将率先开始回升。建筑和金融类职位流失的速度正在放慢。在首批出现房价下跌的圣地牙哥，现在的房价与该市的收入和租金水平基本保持一直。Moody's Economy.com经济学家柯克兰(Steve Cochrane)说，现在房价调整到了可以承受的水平。
汽车销量下滑
安德森 (Darren Anderson)的家族有一个大众汽车Buick Pontiac GMC的经销店叫Lehmer's。他说，北加州地区的Buick Pontiac GMC经销商8月份卖了大约1,000辆汽车，而去年大约是1,900辆。过去几个月，Lehmer's的大约50名员工被裁掉了10人。
销售下降使得加州政府的税收也在减少。经济疲软时，政府开支可提供一定的缓冲。今年1至3季度，加州销售税收较去年同期下降了大约5%。预算困难导致该州今年出现150亿美元的赤字。
许多加州人对预算赤字都记忆犹新。本世纪初互联网泡沫破灭后，收入下降和股市损失使该州出现了380亿美元的预算赤字，随之而来的不满导致重新举行州长选举，现任州长施瓦辛格(Arnold Schwarzenegger)得以上台。
眼下的预算困难可能比九十年代末那次更糟。在州政府削减对各市县补贴的同时，房价下跌减少了当地政府非常依赖的地产税收入。同时，信贷危机导致用于道路、学校等中长期项目的债券发售工作变得更加困难。
Conor Dougherty / Rhonda L. Rundle / Justin Lahart
California Shows Possible Future For US
2008年10月10日
Here's the latest trend that started in California and is spreading to the rest of the country: recession.
It's all but certain the U.S. economy is in a recession, as falling home prices and Wall Street turmoil have put the brakes on consumer spending and stoked unemployment. But California got there first. Now, the state provides a template of how a broad U.S. downturn could look.
With its export businesses, manufacturing sector, professional services and big retail employers, California looks like many other U.S. states, only more so. California's $1.8 trillion economy -- twice the size of India's and accounting for about 15% of the U.S. gross domestic product -- is powerful enough to have ripple effects nationally. It is home to Hollywood, five of 30 Major League baseball franchises and the largest farming sector in the nation.
California was also at the leading edge of the nation's recent housing bubble, which is where its current problems started. Home prices in California rose higher and faster than in most of the U.S., and started weakening earlier, in 2005. Some mortgage-holders defaulted. Others struggle along under a mountain of debt. The problems spread to the state's financial sector, which was heavily exposed to local real estate. As Californians cut their spending, job losses spread from the housing sector to retail stores and auto dealers. Now the state's unemployment rate is 7.7%, among the highest in the nation.
Along with Sunbelt states such as Florida and Nevada, California is a big source of the shocks now working through the world's banks, corporations and stock markets. The financial crisis has frozen credit markets, cutting into companies' ability to engage in even the day-to-day borrowing they need to run their businesses.
But even before the most recent blows to the national economy, Californians were feeling the downward drag of a consumer-led recession -- in which shrinking home values caused people to rein in their spending, fueling unemployment and, in turn, sparking further spending cuts and joblessness.
Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, so as people cut back, job losses and other economic woes follow. In the third quarter of 2007, California's taxable sales declined 1.82% from the year-earlier period, the first annual decline since 2002. Taxable sales have fallen every quarter since. Now in addition to construction workers and mortgage brokers, people like retail clerks, accountants and information-technology consultants are losing their jobs.
A similar dynamic is playing out nationally. Retail sales recently started declining, after peaking in June. Rising job losses appear likely to cut into future sales. In September, the U.S. economy shed 159,000 workers from its payrolls. The unemployment rate was 6.1%, compared with 4.7% a year earlier.
There's no universal definition of recession, and little agreement of what constitutes one in a state economy. But by most measures economists use -- rising job losses, shrinking consumer sales -- California fits the bill. 'There is no question that this area is in a recession,' says John Husing, an economist in Redlands, Calif., who tracks the Inland Empire region east of Los Angeles. 'We're the canary in the mine shaft.'
Not Always a Bellwether
The mortgage-lending frenzy was at its hottest in California, and the state's financial firms were at the forefront of extending untraditional mortgages that were then folded into complex securities. Those firms were also among the first to face disaster when the value of those securities collapsed.
California's losses prefigured the later fallout on Wall Street. Through August, California had seen finance-related jobs fall 6.8% over the past two years, compared with 1.5% nationally.
California's consumers are among the country's most indebted. For every dollar they take home, Californians spend about 19 cents on mortgages, cars, credit cards and other debt payment, compared with about 15 cents nationally, according to Equifax and Moody's Economy.com. As consumers pay down that debt, there will be less left over for purchases, which is better in the long run for the economy's health but hard on retailers now.
With banks tightening the flow of credit, even companies with rising consumer demand are having a hard time expanding. For the past decade, CoopSport in Vista has sold its beach, pool and pet toys mostly in specialty retailers. But last month, it received orders for the first time from mass merchants Target Corp., Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Toy 'R' Us Inc.
In the past, says owner Scott Cooper, CoopSport was able to get credit from its Chinese factories at an annual interest rate of about 10%. But as the credit crisis spreads globally, Chinese factory owners won't provide him the usual financing. He also can't get the credit he needs from the U.S. banks he has contacted. So he has stitched together loans from a series of nontraditional lenders, which charge as much as 18% annual interest.
Mr. Cooper says he has sold a 7.5% equity stake to raise additional capital to fund the expansion. Far from adding staff as he gets ready to expand, CoopSport eliminated eight warehouse workers and two office staff. The company further cut costs by switching to a cheaper box manufacturer and a cheaper truck company. 'It's all the things you do when you go into survival mode in this economy,' he said.
California's big technology sector could also get hit hard by slowing overseas growth and the troubled financial sector. Santa Clara-based semiconductor-equipment manufacturer Applied Materials Inc., for example, fetches more than 80% of its revenue from overseas sales. And financial firms are among the technology sector's biggest customers.
Of course, even in recession California has its strengths. With its universities producing new technologies and entrepreneurial talent, the state has a disproportionate share of well-paying jobs in sectors like telecommunications, biotechnology and energy-efficient technology. Its health-care sector, like that of the rest of the U.S., has continued to add jobs.
Exports also have been a bright spot as a weak U.S. dollar has made goods cheaper abroad. The ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles are the nation's two largest, and have seen a rising stream of goods headed overseas. Through August this year, 22% more full containers were shipped out of the ports combined, compared with the first eight months of last year. With the world economy slowing, exports are expected to slow locally and across the country.
Some economists also believe the state's housing market may hit bottom before the rest of the nation's, and could start an upward tick earlier as well. The loss of construction and finance jobs has slowed. In San Diego, one of the first housing markets to falter, home prices are roughly in line with the city's incomes and rental rates. 'Housing is becoming affordable again,' said Steve Cochrane, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.
Car Sales Down
Darren Anderson, whose family owns Lehmer's Buick Pontiac GMC in Concord, says Buick Pontiac GMC dealers in Northern California sold about 1,000 cars in August, compared with around 1,900 last year. In the past few months, Lehmer's has cut 10 of its roughly 50 employees.
As sales fall, so have the taxes collected by California governments, whose spending can offer a buffer during times of economic weakness. Through the first three quarters of this year, California's sales tax revenue is down about 5% compared with the first three quarters of 2007. Ongoing budget troubles resulted in a $15 billion deficit this year for California.
Budget troubles are deja vu for many Californians. In the aftermath of the dot-com bust, falling incomes and stock-market losses created a $38 billion budget deficit, and the ensuing furor sparked a recall election that brought current Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to power.
Today's budget troubles are potentially even worse than in the late 1990s: Falling home prices have reduced property taxes on which local governments depend, at a time when the state is cutting aid to municipalities. Also, the credit crunch has made it harder to sell bonds to fund longer-term capital projects such as roads and schools.
作者：游客 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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